Future Generali

How are Tesla and GM evaluated through the model of Vigilant Organizations?


Rakesh Wadhwa:

Tesla sells about 350000 cars a year against GM. And Tesla is $90 billion evaluation versus the GM. So how do you see these two companies through the model of Vigilant organizations? Can you explain the difference in the valuation that these companies come on today.


George Day:

So this really brings up a much bigger problem. And that is the distinction between main street realities which are pretty dire in both India and especially in the United States. By main streem reality I mean high unemployment, struggling economy, t's slow recovery, by the end of this year we'll be probably GDP will be down 6%. And yet wall street the equity markets are doing extremely well. The reason is it's about futurity so global corporations. So there's a big disconnect in what's happening on the ground and in the valuations of the companies. And I don't have a lot of confidence in the difference in valuations between GM and Tesla. Because I do think that a GM is not getting nearly enough credit for its really outstanding work on mobility and on autonomous cars. And the drag on GM is perhaps their legacy businesses but that does give them a big base of resources. And so I don't expect that we're going to see this ratio of Valuations to continue. To me it's an unstable situation because Tesla has been an enormously effective company at seeing sooner. They saw the possibility and jumped on it much earlier. And they, for example, didn't have the legacy cars dealerships. So the car people purchased online that has helped them enormously. But Tesla has momentum and FOMO of and so there's a lot of day traders jumping into a Tesla riding the momentum up but over three to four years the valuations will probably return to about possibly equivalent. But the secret is in the old joke if you're going to forecast, forecast often and if you ever get it right keep reminding people.

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